Are we heading for 1984?

The post-war world order

For as long as most of us have been alive, the geopolitical world order has remained consistent with the results that were determined by World War II. Over the ensuing decades, new nations have been born and many wars have been fought, while economic empires have come and gone ... but the basic geopolitical alliances have remained stable since the late 1940’s.

Today however, to many of us it seems as if the world is turning upside down. For the first time in 70 years, the chaos that personified the 1930’s appears to be gradually reappearing. In particular, the 30’s were marked by a global epidemic of xenophobic nationalism, economic protectionism and blatant racism, which collectively led to the Second World War.

After that unbelievably horrible conflict, despite the onset of the cold war, a long period of economic growth and hope ensued for much of the world. Close ties were forged between Europe and North America, as NATO and the European Union emerged to reinforce the original Western democracies, as well as to embrace new ones.

We’ve witnessed these organizations gradually gain importance over time, as they eventually grew to include even some members of the former Warsaw Pact. For a while, the concepts of democracy seemed to be reaching into all corners of the world, including the global advent of emerging democracies from Malaysia to Chile, as well as the Arab spring in the Middle East.

Various forms of free market enterprise also emerged, ranging from the social democracies of Northern Europe and Canada, to the curious co-existence of capitalism and authoritarianism of China.  Yet today, autocracies have taken over from the fledgling democracies of Hungary and Poland, while the once-promising Arab Spring has led to several failed states and the bloody Syrian civil war.

From Utopia to Distopia

 A generation ago, several dystopian novels were mandatory reading for many high school English classes that involved speculative literature.  For example, modern classics like “Animal Farm”, “Brave New World” and “1984” come to mind. Nevertheless, at that time the science fiction genre was dominated by more optimistic visions, such as those of the immensely popular Star Trek and Star Wars franchises.

For the past few years, however, views of the future presented in books for young adults have veered sharply towards the dystopian. Virtually all of the popular movies that grew out of this genre have bleak views of the future, such as the ones presented by “The Hunger Games”, "Divergent" and "Maze Runner".

Meanwhile, even bulwarks of democracy – like Germany, Great Britain, France and the United States – have been threatened by the wave of populism that has already engulfed much of Eastern Europe. Now many nations are increasingly looking inward and rejecting the rise in globalism that had marked the past few decades.

Suddenly, Orwell’s dystopian vision of a world divided into three blocks – Asia, Europe and North America – no longer seems as far-fetched as it once did. The term “double-speak”, which he invented to describe the continuous distortion of the truth for political purposes, aptly describes many of the everyday comments that we now hear from the leaders of Western democracies.

Where might all this lead?

Naturally I don’t know the future, but in my business it’s necessary to be adept at speculating upon the possible outcomes that may result from current circumstances. Thus the relatively new science of Analytics deals with three possible approaches to analysis of the available data.

The first is called “descriptive”, which basically means to provide an intuitive set of graphics that describe what is actually happening. The second approach is called “predictive” and it involves providing a confidence interval (i.e. the statistical likelihood) that a given scenario will occur. Finally, “the prescriptive” approach uses mathematical forecasting to describe what can be done to influence the results and help produce a desirable outcome.   

Perhaps the best known practical example of this science is to examine the historical approach to global warming. Initially, when it was first made public, the phenomenon was described in detail. Then predictions were made to warn people what might happen.

Finally, prescriptions were offered for mitigating its effects. And yet, while many people now take this threat very seriously, a lot of others still don’t acknowledge it. As a result, the prescriptive remedies are only being partially implemented.     

Facing the consequences of inaction

Thus our descendants will pay the price for our relative inaction, since the effects of global warning would take decades to reverse, even if we were already all committed to dealing with it.  Hence it might be argued that democracy and freedom face a threat which is analogous to that posed to the planet by climate change.

Over time, countless people have given their lives to protect our right to live free, which we enjoy today in countries with democratic institutions. Among other things, this involves freedom of the press, regular fair elections and a civil discourse between people who hold opposing views.

 It may include either more or less government intervention, depending on the general population’s appetite for social democracy. Thus in Canada, northwestern Europe and the Commonwealth, a vast social network ensures access to education, healthcare and the basic necessities of life for all. These generous social programs are generally funded by successful economies that have thrived under the free market system.

However, all of this is now at risk, due to the rise of autocratic governments and the strife being fomented by populist movements in Western democracies. From Brexit, to America’s rejection of its European allies, to the threatened repeal of NAFTA, the global free-market economy that was being ushered in at the start of this century is now in danger of being replaced by a loose web of petty, insular and navel-gazing isolationist states.   

How we can protect our freedom

Freedom of speech and the right to vote in fair elections are the bastions of democracy.   It follows that what we all need to do, regardless of our particular political orientation, is to keep the civil dialogue open, in a responsible manner, while taking whatever measures are needed to protect our democratic institutions.

Stand up for your rights, vote whenever you can and support your elected officials.  Do not debase yourself by engaging in the abuse of your opponents or of people who may disagree with you.  Just do your part to ensure that the wheels of democracy continue to move freely and then - regardless of what ideology you may support - the rest will take care of itself.         

Comparing the way that the genders think

Being the father of two grown boys and two grown girls, I find myself acutely aware of the expectations and preconceptions that society imposes on people, based purely upon their gender. To counteract the effect of those stereotypes, I often say that I’ve taught my boys to be “sensitive” and my girls to be “tough”. That’s a huge oversimplification, but you get the idea.  

Suppose that we want to go beyond that, though. Then where do we start? Perhaps we need to understand which of our gender-based behavior patterns are taught and which are instinctive. Of course, this brings us back to the age-old issue of “nurture vs nature”. 

As someone who meditates, I’ve learned that there is a big gap between the actual  reality and what we think is real, what we’ve been told is real or what we assume is real. This is what meditators may refer to as “clarity” and, while it can typically be painful to accept, it also provides a solid foundation upon which to build our emotional well-being. 

Similarly, I believe that the other cornerstones of meditation are “detachment” and “mindfulness”. While the former allows us to experience life without getting too “caught up in the drama”, the latter reminds us to always appreciate what we have.  Another popular interpretation of mindfulness is to live in the present moment, rather than to dwell upon the past or the future.

In fact, to me the key to meditation is to not dwell on anything at all and thus to be free of what’s commonly referred to as the “monkey mind”. But that’ll be the topic for another conversation. For now, the reason that these ideas are relevant involves how we perceive ourselves and the world around us.     

From the day that we’re born we’re bombarded with images, sounds and sensations that are intended to be specific to our gender. Throughout their lives, boys and girls are dressed differently, handled differently and spoken to differently.

Thus most societies generally expect girls to be made “pretty”, via the way that we dress or adorn them, how we arrange their hair and so on. They’re generally expected to “nice”, an ambiguous term which tends to mean that they should demur, not be aggressive or violent, stay clean, not make trouble, etc.       

On the other hand, the expression “boys will be boys” suggests that they can get away with a lot that the girls would be punished for. Boys can generally fight, swear, get dirty, be loud and play tricks on people, without risk of serious repercussions.

Conversely, pain and suffering are acceptable conditions for boys, but not for girls. “It’s good for him”, people will say. “It’ll teach him to be a man”. Until the age of five or so a boy can at least cry, but after that he must be stoic and bear the discomfort without flinching. 

Meanwhile, we’re supposed to shield the girls from anything unpleasant. They’re encouraged to be squeamish and avoid anything messy, dirty, sticky, bloody or painful.  It gets worse as the girls grow up, when we shield them even more, lest they become “hysterical”.

Really?  So they’re telling us that to rave and rant like a lunatic is to behave in a way that’s associated with the female reproductive organs. After all, that’s where terms like “hysterectomy” originate.  Um no, I don’t think so. Ask any kid who’s been calmed down in a crisis by their ever-loving mom.

Likewise, if we’re in a testosterone-laden environment then everybody must be at each other’s throats, right? Well, that’s equally absurd. After all, being male doesn’t mean one will be violent any more than being female is a sure sign of hysteria.   

Sure, I get it … on average, males are more likely to get physical and females are more likely to be emotional. Duh.  But that doesn’t mean that all of us behave that way, any more than we’re all the same height or weight.

We can all strive to be better, or at least different from what we’re expected to be. For example, I marvel at how women talk so freely about how they feel. Guys role their eyes and pretend to be asleep when asked to describe their emotions, but women thrive on it.

Yet isn’t it obvious that men would be more emotionally healthy if they just talked about their feelings more, instead of repressing them?

Another example is how women are conditioned to constantly be aware of how they look.  Men are amazed at the amount of time, effort and money that women put into their appearance. “Yes”, the women will say, “but then the guys go nuts over the prettiest woman they see. That justifies the effort!”

Well, yes, there’s clearly some truth in the observation that men will gravitate to the most attractive women around … but does that really mean she has to be pretty in the classic sense? I’ve observed  many women who don’t necessarily have pretty features, but who are nonetheless beautiful, because of the way they carry themselves or behave.

Put another way, femininity does not necessarily emanate from clothing, makeup or jewelry. Rather, it comes from the person wearing them. Someone who is attracted to females may be sub-consciously stimulated by their pheromones, the shape of their bodies, their facial features, the way that they move and so on.

Likewise, masculinity is not just a function of the clothes that a man wears … it comes from characteristics such as the way he carries himself, his self-confidence and how he behaves. Other factors – such as humor, intelligence, kindness, integrity, loyalty and reliability - can be attractive in any gender.  

Obviously the bodies under the clothing are also essential to the way that people perceive a given gender. In general, men are expected to be muscular and women curvy, but of course people come in all shapes and sizes. In fairness, it should be said that these days everyone is expected to be fit, regardless of their gender.

So, to summarize, this discussion has raised a lot more questions than it’s answered. In brief, the basic dilemma can be stated like this, “How do we break the stereotype, without losing those qualities that (we believe) define how attractive we are?”

Well, that’s certainly a good question!

However, the answer is complex, due to the nature of the problem. Let’s assume that at least some men yearn to cast off their macho image and some women wish that they could stop dressing up like dolls.       

How can they do that and still get the attention of the people they want to attract? To answer that question properly, we need to explore the very nature of what makes us who we are.   

By the way, this discussion applies to everyone, regardless of how they define themselves.  We live in a word where genders change and there are many states that exist between being male or female. My roots are French and I have to return to an expression that doesn’t translate quite right into English.

Ultimately, what we all seek is to be comfortable in our own skins. Next time, let’s talk more about what that entails … and how we can all support each other in that noble quest.   

Perpetuating the American dream

It’s been a while since I’ve posted anything on this blog (over 5 years, in fact). Since then my own life’s journey has been very interesting and I’m quite content … but the world has changed a lot.

After periodic stints working in the USA, I’ve been back at home in Canada lately, which gives me an opportunity to observe America from the outside. For Canadians, witnessing what’s happening south of the border is akin to watching the once-stable home life of your beloved cousins gradually slide into chaos.   

As you can imagine, that can be pretty tough. So, let me try to explain why we care so much.

A friend who was visiting from Chicago recently said to me that Canada seems to follow the Western European model, which I thought was rather perceptive. In some ways, these days we do indeed have more in common with nations like Germany, France and Great Britain than we do with America.

Nevertheless, because of our shared language and history, as well as our close geographic proximity, our exposure to American culture is unparalleled anywhere else.

Although American entertainment is distributed worldwide, we grow up here with ubiquitous access to American TV, music, films and so on.  As a result, unlike much of the world, Canadians tend to have a natural affinity for the United States. We shop there, vacation there, work there and sometimes emigrate there.

However, there is something that Americans do not quite understand about those people from other Western countries who live and work in the States. It’s that we choose to live there, not because we have to, but because we want to. We’re not refugees and we can go home anytime that we want to … yet we often choose to remain in America, simply because we like it.

When people from elsewhere come to Canada or the U.S., they tend to bring with them skills that are in demand.  From migrant workers, to doctors and nurses, to high-tech professionals, the immigrants fill real voids that need to be addressed. Thus, for example, companies in Silicon Valley that can’t bring in software engineers from India will be at a disadvantage to their competitors in countries that welcome those immigrants. 

Likewise, a foreign company that is discouraged from selling its goods in American will just find another market. Meanwhile, consumers abroad who face barriers to buying American goods will just buy those goods from someone else. Thus, to paraphrase a popular saying, this is not your grandfather’s global economy.

Nobody depends on any one source for anything anymore and very few countries are limited in who else they trade with.

So, if we can’t compete, then we lose out to the competition … period, end of story. Because that’s how the world works now, despite the fervent desire of some people to turn back the clock. Canada gets that. Western Europe gets it. So do Australia, New Zealand and most of Asia.

Sure, there are “populist” movements popping up all over the place, but they’re just stalling for time, in the face of the inevitable. After all, globalization is, by definition … well, “global”.

This means that markets can find their own natural course, just like water flowing down a mountainside after a rainfall. This is free-market economics at its finest and it encompasses almost everyone, no matter what their political system. That’s why China and America are the world’s top two economies, despite the vast differences in their political systems.

It hasn’t always been this way, though. I can remember a time when Italy was perpetually flailing in instability, because it seemed like the country could never elect a stable government. Other Western democracies had their post-war growing pains too, but eventually they all flourished and even the Italian system stabilized.

Italy’s Red Brigade came and went, just like the Badder-Meinhof gang in Germany.  Free market economics gradually spread, first all over Western Europe and then to the whole world, until even unlikely places like Vietnam embraced it.          

     

So, the current wave of populism will eventually pass, but the global economy is here to stay. Any country that ignores that and isolates itself will simply be left behind.  Please don’t be left behind, America.

We love you and we want you to prosper. Remember your roots. Remember what made America great in the first place. It wasn’t any one political party or set of beliefs. It was the freedom of expression, the diversity of a land built on the sweat of immigrants and a common belief in the all-inclusive American dream.

Don’t worry, you may have lost your way, but we’ll wait for you. Use your GPS and get back on track. There’ll be a cold beer and some snacks waiting for you when you arrive.