Are we heading for 1984?

The post-war world order

For as long as most of us have been alive, the geopolitical world order has remained consistent with the results that were determined by World War II. Over the ensuing decades, new nations have been born and many wars have been fought, while economic empires have come and gone ... but the basic geopolitical alliances have remained stable since the late 1940’s.

Today however, to many of us it seems as if the world is turning upside down. For the first time in 70 years, the chaos that personified the 1930’s appears to be gradually reappearing. In particular, the 30’s were marked by a global epidemic of xenophobic nationalism, economic protectionism and blatant racism, which collectively led to the Second World War.

After that unbelievably horrible conflict, despite the onset of the cold war, a long period of economic growth and hope ensued for much of the world. Close ties were forged between Europe and North America, as NATO and the European Union emerged to reinforce the original Western democracies, as well as to embrace new ones.

We’ve witnessed these organizations gradually gain importance over time, as they eventually grew to include even some members of the former Warsaw Pact. For a while, the concepts of democracy seemed to be reaching into all corners of the world, including the global advent of emerging democracies from Malaysia to Chile, as well as the Arab spring in the Middle East.

Various forms of free market enterprise also emerged, ranging from the social democracies of Northern Europe and Canada, to the curious co-existence of capitalism and authoritarianism of China.  Yet today, autocracies have taken over from the fledgling democracies of Hungary and Poland, while the once-promising Arab Spring has led to several failed states and the bloody Syrian civil war.

From Utopia to Distopia

 A generation ago, several dystopian novels were mandatory reading for many high school English classes that involved speculative literature.  For example, modern classics like “Animal Farm”, “Brave New World” and “1984” come to mind. Nevertheless, at that time the science fiction genre was dominated by more optimistic visions, such as those of the immensely popular Star Trek and Star Wars franchises.

For the past few years, however, views of the future presented in books for young adults have veered sharply towards the dystopian. Virtually all of the popular movies that grew out of this genre have bleak views of the future, such as the ones presented by “The Hunger Games”, "Divergent" and "Maze Runner".

Meanwhile, even bulwarks of democracy – like Germany, Great Britain, France and the United States – have been threatened by the wave of populism that has already engulfed much of Eastern Europe. Now many nations are increasingly looking inward and rejecting the rise in globalism that had marked the past few decades.

Suddenly, Orwell’s dystopian vision of a world divided into three blocks – Asia, Europe and North America – no longer seems as far-fetched as it once did. The term “double-speak”, which he invented to describe the continuous distortion of the truth for political purposes, aptly describes many of the everyday comments that we now hear from the leaders of Western democracies.

Where might all this lead?

Naturally I don’t know the future, but in my business it’s necessary to be adept at speculating upon the possible outcomes that may result from current circumstances. Thus the relatively new science of Analytics deals with three possible approaches to analysis of the available data.

The first is called “descriptive”, which basically means to provide an intuitive set of graphics that describe what is actually happening. The second approach is called “predictive” and it involves providing a confidence interval (i.e. the statistical likelihood) that a given scenario will occur. Finally, “the prescriptive” approach uses mathematical forecasting to describe what can be done to influence the results and help produce a desirable outcome.   

Perhaps the best known practical example of this science is to examine the historical approach to global warming. Initially, when it was first made public, the phenomenon was described in detail. Then predictions were made to warn people what might happen.

Finally, prescriptions were offered for mitigating its effects. And yet, while many people now take this threat very seriously, a lot of others still don’t acknowledge it. As a result, the prescriptive remedies are only being partially implemented.     

Facing the consequences of inaction

Thus our descendants will pay the price for our relative inaction, since the effects of global warning would take decades to reverse, even if we were already all committed to dealing with it.  Hence it might be argued that democracy and freedom face a threat which is analogous to that posed to the planet by climate change.

Over time, countless people have given their lives to protect our right to live free, which we enjoy today in countries with democratic institutions. Among other things, this involves freedom of the press, regular fair elections and a civil discourse between people who hold opposing views.

 It may include either more or less government intervention, depending on the general population’s appetite for social democracy. Thus in Canada, northwestern Europe and the Commonwealth, a vast social network ensures access to education, healthcare and the basic necessities of life for all. These generous social programs are generally funded by successful economies that have thrived under the free market system.

However, all of this is now at risk, due to the rise of autocratic governments and the strife being fomented by populist movements in Western democracies. From Brexit, to America’s rejection of its European allies, to the threatened repeal of NAFTA, the global free-market economy that was being ushered in at the start of this century is now in danger of being replaced by a loose web of petty, insular and navel-gazing isolationist states.   

How we can protect our freedom

Freedom of speech and the right to vote in fair elections are the bastions of democracy.   It follows that what we all need to do, regardless of our particular political orientation, is to keep the civil dialogue open, in a responsible manner, while taking whatever measures are needed to protect our democratic institutions.

Stand up for your rights, vote whenever you can and support your elected officials.  Do not debase yourself by engaging in the abuse of your opponents or of people who may disagree with you.  Just do your part to ensure that the wheels of democracy continue to move freely and then - regardless of what ideology you may support - the rest will take care of itself.